‘A Critical Scenario’: War on Iran Tightens India's Cooking-Gas Stock.

The ripple effects of a military engagement being fought nearly 3,000km away are now reaching India's kitchens.

As military actions on Iran impede energy shipments through the vital shipping lane, availability of cooking gas are shrinking across India, compelling restaurants to cut menus, close earlier and in some cases shut down altogether.

Social media is awash with video clips showing lines outside fuel suppliers across Indian urban and rural areas as concerns over fuel supplies escalate. Commercial LPG users appear the worst hit: the sharpest squeeze is in restaurant kitchens.

"Conditions are critical. Cooking gas simply cannot be found," says a spokesperson of the an industry group.

Most food outlets run either on commercial LPG cylinders or piped gas, and the shortages are now being experienced across the country. "A lot of restaurants have ceased operations - some in northern India, many in the south. People are turning to solid fuels and electronic appliances to keep their operations going."

Localized Effects

In Mumbai, accounts say up to a 20% of hospitality businesses are already completely or partially closed as business fuel stocks tighten. In the southern cities of Bangalore and Madras, some establishments say their gas stocks have dwindled with minimal reserves. "We can only make coffee and no other dishes - it is extremely difficult. Businesses are going to suffer," says a chain proprietor in Bengaluru.

Restaurant operators are seeking alternatives. "Offering lists are shrinking, some are cutting lunch service and opening only for dinner," an industry representative says, adding that shutdowns are changing as supplies come and go. "Three restaurants in Delhi were shut yesterday - two have already reopened. It's a fluid situation."

Retailers observe a surge in sales of electric cookers, with some saying they are facing stockouts.

Official Position

Yet, the government maintains there is no shortage.

India has more than 30 crore household consumers and officials say stocks are being redirected to households as tensions from the war in the Gulf ripple through energy markets.

Roughly 60% of India's LPG is imported, and about 90% of those shipments pass through the key maritime route, the strategic bottleneck now largely blocked by the war.

The petroleum ministry says that it ordered refineries to increase LPG output for domestic use, raising domestic production by about 25%. Commercial stock is being prioritised for critical services such as healthcare and education, while distribution will be "just and open".

"A degree of anxious stocking and hoarding has been triggered by misinformation. The standard supply timeline for home fuel remains about 60 hours," says a senior official.

Growing Panic

Now the anxiety is moving beyond kitchens. On digital platforms, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a lengthy, winding line of motorbikes outside a petrol pump. "Concern is genuine," the description reads.

According to data from market experts, concerns about India's broader energy security may be premature.

India imports 90% of its oil. Around a significant portion of its petroleum shipments - about 2.5-2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the passage, largely from Gulf countries.

Even if petroleum transit through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted, the deficit could be partly made up by higher imports of Russian petroleum, according to a sector expert.

Based on shipping data and expert analysis, incremental Russian crude imports could reach around a significant volume of barrels a day, reducing India's effective deficit from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.

"Around 25-30 million Russian oil barrels are currently in transit at sea in the Indian Ocean and, with only two major Asian economies as major buyers, those barrels remain a available backup," an analyst noted.

Cooking Gas: The Critical Weakness

The primary concern is LPG, experts note.

India consumes roughly a million barrels a day, but produces only a minority share domestically, importing the rest - 80–90% through the Strait.

Refineries can modify output to extract a bit more LPG, but even a moderate increase would only increase domestic supply to about 47-50% of demand, leaving the country largely dependent on imports.

In short: "Crude supply risk can be moderately reduced through varied suppliers. Fuel availability remains relatively comfortable. Cooking gas supply is the critical issue to track in the coming weeks."

What may be worsening the panic on the ground is not just scarcity but patchy deliveries - and the usual problem of panic buying.

An industry representative alleges opportunistic profiteering.

"Suppliers are misusing the situation - black-marketing cylinders and selling them at a premium. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being hoarded and auctioned off."

For now, India's petroleum stocks may be protected by international market dynamics. But in kitchens across the country, the more urgent issue is simple: how to get the next cylinder.