Whenever the wind blows from the east from Belarus, Lithuania prepares for disruptions.
That is when large aerial objects are dispatched across the border, with boxes of illicit tobacco dangling beneath.
Over the recent period, this unauthorized aerial activity has forced Lithuania's main airport into shutdown 15 times, stranding thousands of travellers.
On a single instance, the airspace was closed completely for a lengthy 11 hours.
However, the authorities are convinced they are facing something considerably more sinister than mere smugglers.
They contend the balloons have been utilized as instruments of provocation in an act of unconventional conflict by Belarus, an ally of the Kremlin.
Government Action
The Lithuanian government has instituted an official alert.
While balloons have been employed by smugglers previously, their numbers suddenly surged this October.
"Of course it began as organised crime activity, but we've seen more than once how Belarus uses organised crime to influence bordering nations," a senior official stated.
The official suggested the balloons are sent from locations that help them best disrupt Lithuania's main airport, situated just 30km from the border.
"If the goal was to conduct a smuggling operation, you'd do it in the forests or swamps, not directly at our airport!" the minister pointed out.
Instead, there is a conviction that the balloons represent a form of coercive pressure on Europe's eastern edge.
"They see this as leverage: 'You have a border with us, we can cause you {huge problems|significant disruption|major issues'," the official said. "What they're doing is really touching the realm of national security."
Nightly Patrols
Now, every night, military police head out in the frontier area.
The balloons are most frequent under cover of darkness.
Patrols set up mobile checkpoints on isolated lanes, checking drivers' documents and examining vehicles looking for anyone involved to the smuggling networks.
The balloons fly too high to make intercepting them with firearms a viable or cost-effective option.
Consequently, the government has announced a substantial reward to any firm that can devise how to safely stop them.
Currently, teams use advanced tracking systems to monitor the balloons and attempt to catch smugglers at the landing sites.
Soon, new criminal charges for aviation disruption should also serve as a preventive measure.
Strategic Motives
The border itself is now defined by a tall metal fence, with barbed wire and concrete blocks.
This extra security is a visible indicator of how Lithuania now views its neighbour as adversarial.
Not far away, the long-time ruler of Belarus has dismissed all talk of hybrid warfare as "baseless".
He recently blamed "bandit" smugglers, saying they were simply acting for financial gain and getting creative to overcome the new security fence.
Lithuania does not buy that, partly due to a history of hybrid tactics.
In 2021, migrants were facilitated to cross into Lithuania and Poland in large numbers, creating a deliberate crisis.
"The current pattern involves a sequence of one or two balloons every 30 minutes, aimed directly at the airport," explained a security official.
"{In Belarus... if they were interested in stopping it they could do it tomorrow. But they don't. That suggests it benefits them."
The prevailing theory is that Belarus is attempting to pressure its way into reducing international restrictions.
"They want to attract political attention and compel us to change our policies towards Belarus," is how one minister interprets the sudden influx of balloons.
The EU does not recognise the Belarusian leader as president following disputed elections in 2020 and a subsequent repression.
Sanctions were imposed then and tightened later when Belarus aided Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
"{First, they want to end the diplomatic ostracism of the regime and number two, of course, the sanctions," the minister stated.
Consequences for Travel
Currently, travellers and airlines face disruptions.
"This is an unprecedented situation for the aviation sector," stated the airport CEO.
One airline has already relocated its charter flights, and another has cut its evening service.
Revenue losses for all impacted companies are estimated to reach €2m by year's end.
"One thing is the extra cost, but the even higher risk is if passengers start to lose confidence in air travel," he admitted.
Already, travellers consult a new webpage for wind forecasts and balloon probability before booking flights.
"It's stressful, it makes me a little bit nervous. I'd just like to get home as planned," one traveller said.
"I am convinced this is a form of aggression on us," said a local resident. "I think for them it's really funny to fly those balloons and then mock us."
Her words suggest that another aim of such covert tactics – undermining confidence – is also having an effect, and perhaps more difficult to counter.
"They're basically testing the limits of the alliance: looking at how we respond to these kinds of things," said another citizen.
"And we can't even fight simple balloons. We're not even prepared for the fundamental challenges."
