The diplomatic language and optics from the Russian leader Vladimir Putin's recent visit to India projected a enduring bilateral relationship. Indian PM Narendra Modi welcomed Putin at the tarmac with a hug, and the statesmen took a ride together, echoing a familiar political gesture. In his address, Modi called Putin as "a dear friend" and described the Indo-Russian connection as a "guiding star", built on "mutual respect and profound trust" that had "stood the test of time". This was Putin's 10th trip to India during his 25-year rule and his 20th meeting with Modi since the latter assumed office in 2014.
A Divide Separating Pageantry and Reality
Yet, a significant gap persists between the ceremony and the substance of this partnership. While Putin vowed "uninterrupted fuel supplies" to India, the country's companies are actually purchasing a reduced amount of Russian oil due to international tariffs and sanctions. The two countries signed numerous agreements covering migration, health, food security, maritime cooperation, and educational collaboration. However, anticipated announcements on significant defence contracts did not happen. India has not concluded any substantial defence agreements with Russia since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, a situation fueled by delays in shipments of equipment and spare parts as Moscow prioritizes its own defence requirements.
A Partnership With Diminished Geopolitical Weight
These developments suggests that the Indo-Russian dynamic no longer holds the same geopolitical clout it once possessed. During the Cold War, India maintained preferential trade terms and market access to the USSR and its allies. This unique relationship reached its pinnacle in 1971 with a Pact of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation, signed before a conflict with Pakistan during which Islamabad was supported by the US and China. While both nations have sought to preserve a semblance of this close bond through a "unique and elevated" strategic partnership declared in 2010, the reality is that their interaction lacks the former significance as New Delhi has substantially deepened ties with the West.
Broadening and Underlying Tensions
New Delhi is not expected to cut its important relationship with Moscow. But, as Western pressure increases on India to curtail its imports of Russian oil, both countries are attempting to diversify the partnership into other areas. During Putin's trip, they unveiled an joint economic program lasting until 2030, aiming to make their relations "broader, equitable and sustainable". This involves improving entry for Indian goods to rectify a trade deficit heavily skewed in Russia's favor. Collaboration between the two spans several key strategic fields – from space and nuclear energy to defence and agriculture.
Ideological Affinity and Perceived Dependability
At an sentimental level, a significant amount of closeness with Russia persists, especially among senior cohorts of policymakers in New Delhi who recall Moscow's crucial role during the earlier era. This has resulted in a certain level of understanding for the Russian viewpoint on the Ukraine war. Amid ongoing tensions between India and the US, in which American officials have issued sharp remarks about the Indian economy, many in India see Russia as a increasingly reliable ally.
This challenge, naturally, is the continuing war in Ukraine.
The comprehensive joint statement issued during Putin's India trip made no mention to Ukraine, even though it paradoxically referred to the partnership as an "pillar of global peace and stability". In spite of Modi's much-touted assertion that "now is not the era of war", New Delhi's public steps regarding the war have been minimal.
Squaring the Dilemma: New Delhi's Global Tightrope
This situation highlights the inherent contradictions in India's foreign policy. The nation is set to finalize a free trade agreement with the EU, following a comparable agreement with the UK earlier year. Separately, India, Australia, and Canada declared a three-way technology partnership. There are ten times more Indian students in the US than in Russia, even as moves are being made to strengthen people-to-people exchanges between India and Russia.
How will India square this complex equation? New Delhi will be hoping that current talks will succeed, resulting in a cessation of fighting and the removal of a key thorn in its ties with the Western bloc. However, should a settlement is reached, if it fails of a "fair resolution" that upholds Ukraine's independence and territorial integrity, critical examination of the Indo-Russian relationship will certainly continue in Western governments.
