Starmer's Backers Launch 'Stop Andy Burnham' Drive to Block Mayor's Parliamentary Return

Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a coordinated effort to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a return to the House of Commons. This move follows the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an upcoming byelection.

Major Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Procedure

A number of members on the Labour Party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection process. This is largely due to the significant presence of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are desperate to avoid any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The party apparatus is said to have sprung into action following the announcement of the MP's intended departure, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable financial cost and electoral danger of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Previously, he caused consternation in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had encouraged him to stand for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to potentially contest the party leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the level of any planning, stating he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would only re-enter Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Amid opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only senior Labour personality with favourable ratings with the public.

Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple obstacles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then win the by-election against challenges from Reform UK and independent candidates, all prior to any possible bid for the leadership.

Efforts to Block Burnham

High-ranking Labour figures have said that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already in progress, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally said that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to stop talking about potential contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

NEC members have reportedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

A number of sources also shared concerns about Reform UK potentially win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. There is also speculation the committee could enforce an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.

However, one Burnham ally counselled against presuming the NEC would simply reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.

The unions occupy a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now keeping their counsel, sources suggested they would be opposed to anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question holds a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform is expected to mount a strong campaign, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.

If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by some on the parliamentary party.

The departing MP stated he was stepping down due to declining mental health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He is also subject to a parliamentary standards investigation related to his involvement in an offensive online group.