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Against the backdrop of the considerable disarray regarding the US strikes on Venezuela, the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “manage” the country and “seize control of the oil”, one thing is clear – they set a truly chilling precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States carries a troubling legacy of interference, invasion and occupation in that part of the world, but this past Saturday morning witnessed its initial significant armed assault on the soil of a South American nation. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” Trump proclaimed.

The choice to militarily strike another sovereign country and capture its head of state – only a few days after he publicly sought an off-ramp – has still wider repercussions. We all have reason to be worried.

A Nation Left in Limbo

Venezuelans have suffered under an oppressive, corrupt, and inept government under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have stolen the last election. They now face a future of deep insecurity. Mr Trump has suggested that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and brushed aside rightwing opposition leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the temporary head of state, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other elements of the headless administration are far more intransigent.

From Global Policeman to International Outlaw

A man who won power vowing to end foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He does not see the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is converting it into a lawless actor.

He is convinced that the United States' strength enables it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: observe the military actions against Nigeria and Iranian installations. He asserts that the oil resources of Venezuela means this latest episode “will be financially free”.

An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty

George W. Bush initiated war in Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came without UN resolutions of any kind or the consent of the US Congress; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump aims not merely to stretch international norms, but to destroy them.

Set aside the message this sends to global powers like Russia and China, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid reportedly killed 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, no US personnel died. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will likely encourage additional military gambits.

The Stated Reason Versus the Real Aims

Few believe the justification that this is related to the drug trade. Venezuela is only a secondary pathway for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the past Honduran leader Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. Mr Trump himself has stated plainly that he is driven by the promise of energy wealth as well as personal bravado, the beliefs held by certain advisors, and the appetite for triumphalism as his support at home declines.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode underscores the UN's diminishing clout.

Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could yet press him to turn attention back home – but rising medical costs, financial discontent and ongoing controversies make foreign conflicts more appealing.

We are not yet 12 months into his time in office. World leaders may come to rue the day if they remain quiet at this juncture, with the question of which nation is next looming.